몇 주전 타임지 표지모델로 김정일이 등장했습니다.

요즘 우리나라 상황을 보면 대단히 위험한 상황으로 가고 있음을 알 수 있습니

다. 이 기사를 통해 미국에서 우리나라를 바라보는 시각을 읽을 수 있고 그것

은 우리에게 심각한 안보공백이 생기고 있음을 시사해주고 있습니다.

현명한 대처가 필요한 상황입니다. 북한은 이미 8기의 핵무기를 갖고 있으며

이는 심각한 전쟁 위험 요소가 되고 있습니다.

요즘 외국인들 투자가 줄었고 멕시코등지로 빠져나간다고 합니다. 이를 보면

외국에서 우리나를 바라보는 시각이 어떠한지를 알 수 있습니다.



★타임지에 실린 내용


미군이 인계철선 이남으로 이전하고 12500명이 감축된다.

But now Lee is deeply upset at the news that Washington wants to pull out 12,500 soldiers, or one-third of the American armed presence in Korea, after 50 years of peacekeeping. The plan is to remove all the troops now stationed on the front line. "This is devastating," says Lee. Fifteen of Dongducheon's leaders shaved their heads last week and went to Seoul to hoist a protest banner outside the National Assembly building. The banner was written in their own blood.



For the elders of Dongducheon, the departure of American soldiers is a pocketbook issue: the town survives by providing Yankee grunts with Pringles, Budweiser and raunchy nighttime entertainment. For the rest of the region, it's something far more significant: another indication that the status quo on the Korean peninsula for more than half a century, written in the blood of the Korean War's more than 2.5 million victims, is rapidly evolving.






북한은 은폐되어 있는 반면 남한은 친북성향의 좌익 대통령과 정당이 정권을 잡고 있다.

North Korea is no longer the region's pariah, a hermetically sealed place with whose leaders no others wanted to deal. On the contrary, South Korea is now dominated by a leftist-nationalist President and a political party whose members often see the North as a potential friend or partner, and only sometimes as an enemy that vows to invade and conquer them in a "sea of fire." (The two countries are still technically at war.) Last week, Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi gave an astonishingly positive account of his recent meeting with North Korea's leader,






북한은 최근 한미동맹이 뒤틀리고 미국의 군사전략이 변화함에 따라 유화적 제스쳐를 쓰고있다. 이는 625 발발 전 상황과 대단히 흡사하다. 늘 공격전에 방심을 유도하는 것이 북한의 전략이다.

Kim Jong Il, saying that "I personally felt that North Korea was interested in moving forward in a positive way." (See following story.) Beijing said last week that it did not share Washington's assessment of the north's nuclear programs. These changes in attitude toward Pyongyang are being played out against the backdrop of a revised American military posture on the peninsula and strains in the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Echoing the famous complaint about Washington's China policy in the late 1940s, South Korean conservatives are already starting to ask: "Who lost the U.S.?"

Hovering above all this, doing one of the great geopolitical levitation acts of our time, is Kim Jong Il. The world has consistently underestimated North Korea's "Dear Leader." Of his potential to cause a bloody war on the peninsula there is little doubt, even if such a war concluded, as it almost certainly would, with the collapse of his own regime. Kim has vast arsenals of biological and chemical weapons, along with the rocket launchers and missiles needed to lob them over the DMZ, onto South Korean cities and even as far as Japan. The North is trumpeting its ability to make nuclear bombs; according to U.S. intelligence,






김정일은 적어도 8기의 핵무기를 보유하고 있다.

Kim may have at least eight nuclear devices by now, up from only a couple before the latest nuclear crisis. But the policy of South Korea's President Roh Moo Hyun is not to confront Kim but to engage with him. Roh is keen on sending tourists across the border to help the North's economy and on building rail and road links that may someday zip through the DMZ. Japan's change in approach to Kim is even more marked. In 2002, the Japanese public was outraged when North Korea admitted it had abducted 13 Japanese. But Koizumi flew to Pyongyang last month, met with Kim, and got some of their families back to Tokyo—while his government promised the North 250,000 tons of food and $10 million worth of medical supplies, staunchly denying it was a quid pro quo.

It might be a stretch to label Kim the Teflon Dictator, but so far, he's looking mighty unscratched. His government is still engaged in talks with the U.S., Japan, China, South Korea and Russia on ways to dismantle his nuclear program, and all sides insist they're united on that goal, although little headway has been made. And the U.S. is hardly pulling its boys in fear. "You can be a trip-wire force with 5,000 troops," says one U.S. Air Force officer in Washington, "as well as with 37,000." That's especially the case given the parlous state of Kim's own infantry and air force, which work with equipment designed and built in the 1960s.



But Kim, whose country George W. Bush placed on his "axis of evil" list in 2002 (along with Iran and Saddam Hussein's Iraq), isn't exactly in need of a spider hole. The methods he uses to maintain control of his army, Politburo and people might be opaque, but his manipulation of the outside world is looking surprisingly and consistently adroit. Kim quickly recognized that South Korea's shift from cold war to détente (under former President Kim Dae Jung's "Sunshine Policy") was based on the fear that if the North collapsed it would touch off a ruinously expensive unification of the peninsula. Seoul suddenly desired what Kim wants most desperately: his own survival. That drove a wedge between South Korea and the U.S. Now, Washington is tinkering with its trip wire after 50 years.






현재까지의 정세를 볼 때, 이 게임의 승자는 북한이다.

"The winner is North Korea," says Lee Dong Bok, a former top South Korean official who led negotiations with North Korea over a 30-year period. "There's no doubt about that." In other words: the world does deal with terrorist rogue states when the situation is complex, when there are distractions around such as Iraq—and when dictators play their cards right.

Washington insists the pullout of troops isn't a lessening of support for South Korea but merely part of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's re-engineering of the U.S. military. Rumsfeld wants to have speedy and flexible units around the world that can move into various kinds of conflicts. The G.I.s in South Korea, in contrast, are configured for one war alone, against the old-fashioned (if potentially cataclysmic) weaponry of North Korea. "'Imperfectly' is how I would characterize the way the United States is arranged," Rumsfeld said this month about the U.S. troops. Victor Cha, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., agrees: "This is an alliance that has not changed in 50 years. It was a static force, heavily ground-based." Last week's announcement of the pullout followed two earlier U.S. plans to move 14,000-15,000 American soldiers from the DMZ to bases farther south and transfer 3,600 troops to Iraq.


But for all its military logic, Seoul was rattled by the Pentagon's latest decision. In an interview with TIME, Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon bristled when asked about the "withdrawal" of U.S. troops—he insists on the term "reduction"—and said the details were still being thrashed out between the two governments. "We'd like to see whether this can be delayed," he said. "And, if it can be delayed, by how much." (Ban is pushing for the U.S. to hold off any pullout until 2007, although Washington has said it wants the troops gone by December 2005.)






노무현, 반미정서의 젊은 유권자 계층에 힘입어 당선되었으나 그조차 미군 감축 후의 군사적 취약점에 인식하기 시작했다.

President Roh had come to office by exploiting anti-American sentiment among the young generation of voters, but even Roh has started to recognize South Korea's vulnerability behind a smaller U.S. shield.

That's wise. If Kim Jong Il chose war, he would start with a barrage from the thousands of North Korean artillery systems arrayed on the 248-km front. Some of the shells could be loaded with chemical or biological weapons.






북한의 탱크부대와 장갑차를 막을 수 있는 것은 미 2사단의 아파치 헬기부대다. 이번에 감축되는 부대가 바로 이 부대다

Then hordes of North Korean infantry and Kim's giant fleet of tanks and armored personnel carriers would be sent, headed for Seoul and other strategic targets. The U.S. 2nd Infantry Division near the DMZ flies Apache attack helicopters capable of stopping the tanks—but that's the unit the Pentagon plans to downsize and move south.


The U.S. insists that even if the artillery division is moved, the defense of South Korea will not be compromised, and Washington has promised an $11 billion upgrade of the country's defenses, including new Patriot antimissile systems. But South Korean experts are worried that North Korean artillery will have freer rein until the South can plug the hole with its own antiartillery batteries. "If they move out the artillery and the helicopters," warns Kim Tae Woo, a military analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, "we will have serious problems." He points out that equipment and boots on the ground are concrete shields against the North. "






미국은 감군대신 장비를 현대화 시킨다고 하지만 더 중요한 것은 한미동맹관계에 금이 가기 시작했다는 것이다. 그리고, 장비 업글이 한두해동안 되는 게 아니다.

Yes, capability is more important than the sheer number of soldiers," Kim Tae Woo says. "But the health of the alliance is more important than both those things combined."

The alliance, however, looks far from healthy. Foreign Minister Ban's assessment of the North Korean nuclear threat is less dramatic than the official U.S. position: that Pyongyang is probably already a nuclear power. "We are not quite sure whether they are in possession of nuclear weapons," Ban told TIME, adding that South Korea nonetheless took the issue seriously. (China's Deputy Foreign Minister last week also said he doubted the American assertion that Kim was running a covert uranium-enrichment program on top of making weapons from plutonium.)





한미갈등의 또다른 원인은 이전할 미군부대 부지에 대한 서로 다른 견해차이다.

Washington and Seoul are also bogged down in a dispute over a new base for American soldiers currently stationed at the Yongsan garrison in central Seoul.



The U.S. says it needs 11.9 million sq m of land for its soldiers; the South Koreans haven't been prepared to set aside quite that much. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense





리차드 루이스 미국무부 차관은 이번달 초 조선일보 인터뷰에서 이런 논쟁이 빨리 해결되지 않으면 110억불 상당의 무기업그레이드글 계획이 무산된다고 경고했다.

Richard Lawless complained earlier this month in an interview with the Chosun Ilbo newspaper that if that dispute isn't settled, the $11 billion weapons-upgrade program could be threatened. Park Jin, a lawmaker in South Korea's conservative opposition Grand National Party, visited Washington last month and got the feeling from U.S. officials and scholars that the South was being viewed as wobbly or maybe even plain old untrustworthy:





"한국과 미국이 진정한 동맹인가 의심스럽다"는 것이 미국의 학계의 분위기이다.

"I was told there was a question mark over whether South Korea was a true ally." Marcus Noland, a scholar at Washington's Institute for International Economics, says the two governments are clearly "further apart" since Roh took office. "There is blame to be shared by both sides," he says.





"노무현 정부는 서투른데다 적의적이다"는 말까지 하고 있다.

"But the Roh people appear to be particularly inept and/or hostile."



The "Roh people," in fact, describes not just a government but a generation: younger Koreans who weren't alive during the Korean War and barely remember South Korea's Herculean effort to escape poverty. They came of age during the years of authoritarian rule, and





군부독재에 대한 책임은 미국에 있으며 북한보다 미국이 더 나쁜 놈들이다 란 것이 젊은 한국인들의 생각이다.

they squarely blame the U.S. for supporting such military dictators as Park Chung Hee and Chun Doo Hwan. (Roh himself had a career as a human-rights lawyer who took on the South's strongman governments.) Many of these younger Koreans are quicker to direct their anger toward the U.S. than to North Korea. Washington, they suspect, keeps troops in the South solely for its own security interests, at the cost of a divided peninsula.






그들은 북한에 대한 두려움과 미국에 대한 적개심을 동시에 가지고 있다.

They may fear North Korea in one part of their minds, but they hate the U.S. in another.

Kim Dae Jung's "Sunshine Policy" replaced decades of invective toward the North with a rapprochement that resulted in his June 2000 summit with Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang and the Nobel Peace Prize four months later. Kim Dae Jung had to compromise with a conservative opposition, and so did Roh when he was elected on his anti-American, pro-"Sunshine Policy" platform in December 2002. But now Roh has got a free hand, thanks to a recent rise from the ashes of controversy. The opposition impeached Roh on slender charges in March; then a brand-new pro-Roh political grouping, the Uri Party, won a majority of seats in the National Assembly. A court reversed Roh's impeachment a month later, and the new, hastily reconstituted government is all of one mind: pro-Sunshine.






반미와 친북이 정치권의 주요세력이다.

"Anti-Americans and pro-North Koreans are now masters of the political landscape," says former government negotiator Lee.

Indeed, South Korean newspapers no longer harp on the hard life in the North but instead find lots of space to report on fledgling economic reforms or the progress of economic projects between the two countries, such as the busloads of southerners who take tours through the DMZ to the Mount Kumgang resort, built by the Hyundai Group at a cost, so far, of $568 million. Two weeks ago, the two countries announced a formal agreement to stop blasting propaganda at each other across the DMZ, which was sealed with a hearty handshake between North Korea's General An Ik San and South Korea's Rear Admiral Park Jeong Hwa. South Korean schoolbooks used to teach grade-schoolers to hate and fear "the enemy." Today's texts contain pictures of North Korean food shops ("A lot of women," reads the caption, helpfully, "are participating in economic activity") and suggest students practice writing letters to their counterparts across the border (without mentioning that North Korea prohibits mail from the South.) In today's classrooms, you can find a third-grade textbook with a cartoon of two boys from either side of the border deciding not to throw rocks at each other.


Northern Boy: I'm sorry I threw the rock at you first.

Southern Boy: I'm sorry, too. It is not right for brothers to throw rocks at each other.

Northern Boy: Our parents and ancestors would be grieved to see us fighting.

Southern Boy: Speaking of which, do you want to participate in the international Ping-Pong game together as one team? ... If we become one team, we can make up for our weakness and no other country will be able to beat us.

Teachers need little encouragement to use such texts.






한국 초등학교에서 한국과 북한은 로미오와 줄리엣, DMZ는 강, 나쁜 용은 미국으로 비유해서 아이들을 가르치고 있다.Park Geun Byung, a teacher at Song Chun elementary school in Seoul, uses a storybook that instructs his fourth-grade class in the tale of an evil dragon that prevents a Romeo and Juliet on either side of a river from marrying. The river is plainly the DMZ. The evil dragon is meant to represent the U.S. Park is a believer in what he calls "unification education." "Teachers," he adds, "don't have to be neutral."


What will Kim Jong Il make of Washington's move to reduce its forces in South Korea—and how will he react?





전문가들은 김정일이 대단한 전략가라고 말한다.

"He is a brilliant strategist," says Sohn Kwang Joo, a North Korea analyst at the Seoul-based Institute of National Unification Policy,






김정일은 극한정책(배째라 정책)의 전문가이고 정권유지에 강한 집착을 하고 있다. 김정일의 다음 작업은 이번달 있을 6자회담을 잘 치루는 것이다. 별로 어렵지는 않을 것이다. 중국은 북한을 달래서 회담에 참석하게 하는 것이 일이고, 남한은 질질 끌려 다니고, 일본은 자국민납치문제로 전전긍긍이고, 러시아는 방관자에 가깝고, 미국은 회담성사 자체가 성공이라고 여기니까. 김정일이 정말로 원하고 있는 상호불가침과 외교수립에 대한 북미회담을 거절하고남은 유일한 수단으로써의 육자회담이 성사된 것만으로도 미국은 만족한다는 뜻이다.

"an expert at brinkmanship. He is very focused on maintaining his regime." Kim's next task is to get through the third round of the six-party talks on his nuclear program, which is supposed to take place this month. That shouldn't be too difficult. China's main role has been to cajole Pyongyang into attending; South Korea has been reluctant to pull off its gloves; Japan has been distracted by the kidnappings of its citizens; and Russia is largely an observer. The U.S. counts the fact that the talks are continuing as a success in itself, not least of all because it adamantly refuses the only other alternative, the one that Kim really wants: bilateral discussions with Washington to discuss diplomatic recognition and a noninvasion treaty.


(When Koizumi met Bush at the G-8 summit last week, he carried just such a message from Kim.)

None of this means that Kim's position is unassailable. If he launched a war against the South, the U.S.'s huge technological advantage would almost certainly be decisive, notwithstanding the cutback in American troops on the peninsula.




전 주한미대사였던 제임스 릴리는 "만약 북한이 공격한다면 박살날것이다." 김정일은 전쟁에 미쳐있고, 지금 이순간 그의 생존능력은 그를 임기응변의 달인으로 만들었다. 핵개발 정도가 드러나지 않은 것과 그의 정권에 대한 주변국가들의 변화된 태도로 인해, 김정일은 그의 적과의 균형을 깨는데 아주 약간의 노력만이 필요할 뿐이다. 김정일이 왜 포스터에서 웃고 있는가? 이제 당신은 그 이유를 알것이다.


"If North Korea attacked," says James Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to Seoul, " would be blown off the face of the earth." But Kim would be mad to wage such a war. Right now, his survival skills have made him master of the moment. With the security that comes from his weapons and a changing regional attitude to his regime, Kim needs to do little more than continue to keep his adversaries off balance. In the propaganda posters that dot North Korea, Kim is always seen smiling. Now you know why.



—Reported by Chaim Estulin/Hong Kong, Mingi Hyun, Kim Yooseung, John Larkin and Donald Macintyre/Seoul and Eric Roston and Mark Thompson/Washington






다음은 타임지와는 상관없지만 눈여결볼만한 내용입니다.



『우리가 월남패망의 전철을 밟고 있진 않는지?』

※ 이 내용은 월남패망 당시 주월 한국대사관 경제 담당공사로서
월남패망후 월맹군에 체포되어 5년간 억류생활을 한바 있는
이대용 육사 총동문회장의 증언 내용을 요약 정리한 것임.

□ 월남과 한국은 일란성 쌍둥이

o 우리의 역사를「반만년 배달민족」이라고 하는데
월남은「반만년 황룡의 후손」이라고 한다.

o 중국의 지배권에 있다가 식민지 경험을 한 것도 비슷하고
식민지에서 해방되면서 남북의 허리가 잘려 분단
(북에는 공산정권, 남에는 자유민주정권) 된 사실도 비슷하다.

o 지역감정이 센 것, 식민잔재청산문제로 인한 정통성 논쟁,
각 정치 세력간 끝없는 분파와 이합 집산도 너무나 닮았다.

□ 한쪽에서는 평화회담, 다른쪽에선 대남공작

o '73. 1. 27 휴전회담의 휴전담보를 위해 키신저는 40억달러의
원조를 제공, 피폐한 월맹의 경제재건을 돕기로 하고 교전
당사국인 미국, 월남, 월맹, 베트콩(베트남 임시혁명정부)
등이 서명

o 휴전 무렵 월맹은 80∼100만톤의 식량부족과 물자부족에
시달리면서도 줄기찬 대남 공세를 지속했으며,

o 휴전 협정 이전부터 숱한 공산당 프락치들이 월남 곳곳에 침투
하기 시작, 빈룽성 내의 혁명정부청사에서는 월남정부의
각 부처와 월남군 총사령부의 극비 회의 내용이 단 하루만에
상세히 보고 될 정도로 티우정권 핵심에 공산프락치가 침투
되어 있었다.

o 반면 월남에서는 군사 쿠데타가 벌어질 때마다 대공전문가들이
쫓겨나 월남의 대공기관과 정보기관은 대월맹 정보수집은
물론 심지어 월남 내부에 침투한 공산 프락치 검거에 무기력
했다.

□ 국민들의 해이된 안보의식

o 휴전 협정이후 월남은 월맹보다 경제력은 물론 군사력 면에서도
월등이 앞서 있어 월맹군이 도발하더라도 즉시 미군이 개입
하여 북폭을 재개할 것이고 월등한 월남군(세계 4위)의
기동력과 화력으로 월맹군을 막을 수 있다고 낙관하고 있었기
때문에 누구도 월맹군이 남침할 것이라고는 믿지 않았다.

o 국방과 안보를 강조하는 사람은 전쟁에 미친, 정신나간 사람
취급을 받게 되었고, 결국은 그 믿음이 국방 소홀로 이어져
내부적으로 극심한 정쟁의 원인을 제공한 것이다.

□ 부정부패의 만연

o 월남의 지배층은 사리사욕과 부정축재에 빠져 있어 체제 파괴
세력들에게 공격의 빌미를 제공하게 되었다.

o 후방이 부패와 혼란에 빠지고 사회에 정의감이 상실되자
「저따위 썩은 정권과 나라를 위해 내가 왜 목숨을 바쳐야
하는가」라는 생각으로 군인들의 전의가 상실되었다.

□ 시민·종교단체를 좌익이 장악

o 월남에서는 천주교의 짠후탄 신부, 불교계의 뚝드리꽝 스님등이
구국평화 회복 및 반부패 운동세력」이라는 단체를 결성했다.
이 사회단체하에 사이공대학 총학생회, 시민단체들이 연합하여
일종의 시민연대를 구성하여 반부패 운동에 나섰다.

o 이 조직에 공산당 프락치들이 대거 침투하여 반정부, 반체제
세력으로 변질되어 목사, 승려, 학생 그리고 좌익 인사들이
한데 뒤섞여 반전운동·인도주의운동·문화운동단체들을 총동원
하여 반정부 시위를 벌였다.

o 월맹정규군의 무력침공과 베트콩의 게릴라전에 패배한 이상
으로, 이들 100여 좌익단체의 선전전에 속수무책으로 당했던
것이다.


□ 거지군대에 패망한 월남

o 패망 후 월남의 군인, 경찰은 무장해제 되어 수용소에 보내졌고
공무원과 지도층인사, 언론인, 정치인들은 모두 체포되어「인간
개조 학습조」에 수감되었었고, 대부분은 살아 돌아오지 못했다

o 반정부, 반체제 운동을 벌였던 교수, 종교인, 학생등 시민·
종교단체 인사들은 모조리 체포 처형되었다. 그 이유는
자본주의 사회에서 반정부 활동을 하던 인간들은 사회주의 사회
에서도 똑같은 짓을 할 우려가 있기 때문이었다.

□ 결 언

o 체제가 안정되었다거나 경제력이 우수하다라는 말은 조국에
충성하는 국민의식과 군사력이 뒷받침되지 않으면 잠꼬대에
불과하다.

o 월맹군인들은 소금만 가지고 하루 두끼 식사를 할 정도였고
속옷은 구경조차 할 수 없었다. 전차부대를 제외하고는 군화
를 신은 사람도 없었고 타이어를 짤라 끝으로 묶은 채 질질
끌고 다니면서 월남군과 전투를 했던 것이다.
이런 군대가 최신 무기로 완전 무장한 월남군대를 붕괴 시켰
다. 부패한 군대와 분열된 사회는 최신 무기를 고철로 만든다.

※ 우리가 깊이 생각해 봐야 할 점

▶ 한국과 월남이 역사적, 현실적으로 너무나 흡사한 점

▶ 남북평화 회담과 한편에서는 대남 적화공작

▶ 문민정부이후 대공 및 정보기관의 무력화

▶ 국민들의 해이된 안보의식

▶ 심화되고 있는 안보·통일관의 갈등

▶ 지도층의 부정부패

▶ 우후죽순처럼 생겨나는 시민단체

▶ 주한미군 감축


// 사진을 올릴 방법을 몰라서 그냥 못올렸습니다 -_- 제송합니다.